| Panel analyzes upcoming Nigerian elections BY MIKE UNGER 
Photo by Jeff Watts
From left: Don Heflin, Peter Lewis, Rotimi Suberu, and AU vice president Robert Pastor discuss the upcoming Nigeria elections. With Nigeria’s elections less than two months away, a panel of experts assembled Wednesday night in the Butler Board Room to discuss the future of the West African nation. The April balloting for president and parliament will be Nigeria’s third free election. The question remains as to whether it will be peaceful and fair, and fears of corruption and violence run rampant throughout the country and the world. Rotimi Suberu, a professor at the University of Ibadan and senior fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace, laid out five reasons for optimism—and five for pessimism. The nature of Nigerian civil society, the presence of a strong political opposition, the relative peacefulness of the military, and the record of the new democracy in dealing with crises were cited by Suberu as reasons for hope. If it loses, the incumbent government should be given the benefit of the doubt that it will peacefully leave office, he added. Among the reasons for negativity, Suberu listed the incompetence of the institution charged with carrying out the elections, the country’s poor record of civilian managed elections, the lack of internal democracy within the political parties, pervasive doubts about the integrity and sincerity of the incumbent government, and the insurgency in the Niger Delta. “The 2007 elections in Nigeria will be the most important in its history,” he said. “It may not be a perfect process, but I think there are sufficient grounds to be cautiously optimistic that we will have a civilian to civilian transition.” Peter Lewis, associate professor at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, is considered one of the U.S.’s preeminent experts on Nigeria. “This is really a watershed election for Nigeria,” he said. “This is a third election, and third elections generally speaking turn out to be important. They signal an opportunity for change and power turnover.” Lewis detailed the fractured political situation in Nigeria, which includes a contentious feud between the president and vice president, and laid out two scenarios that could unfold following the election. “A credible election could give Nigerians a sense of affirmation,” he said. “It won’t mean this was a good election and the fundamental institutional problems have been resolved, but it will mean the system is functioning credibly and in the eyes of most Nigerians that the country can move forward. “If there’s mass fraud and violence, there could be a situation of ungovernability and an opening for the militias and Islamists and fundamentalist groups to play their hand,” he said. Don Heflin, deputy director for the Office of West African Affairs at the U.S. State Department, believes that the burden is on Nigerians, and not the international community, to ensure a smooth electoral process. “The challenges in Nigeria are real and daunting, but they can be resolved,” said Heflin, who recently returned from a trip to Nigeria. “Nigerians can and will have to do this themselves. It’s a large country with a large middle class. There will be 130,000 polling stations. How does the international community send monitors to that many polling stations? They can’t. “They’re going to have to do what we do here, which is the parties keep an eye on each other.” The discussion, sponsored by ABTI-American University of Nigeria, was moderated by Robert Pastor, AU’s vice president of international affairs. “The stability of the whole continent rests on these elections,” he said. “There are signs that do indicate that there is some reason for optimism.” |
