April 8, 2008
Role of conventions mulled during dramatic political year
Panelists Billy Pitts, Mike Berman, and Costas Panagopoulos (Photo by Jeff Watts)
For years, conventions have been seen as a time for speeches and balloons, but not drama. How times have changed.
As the country looks toward this summer’s Democratic convention, “It appears that something may break out that none of us has ever seen at a convention, and that is, news,” said Ron Elving, Washington editor for National Public Radio.
He was among the panelists at last week’s conference on the 2008 national party conventions, hosted by the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, which addressed such questions as the role of the media, delegate selection, and whether conventions still matter.
When author and scholar Costas Panagopoulos began researching conventions, he said, “everyone I talked to said conventions don’t really matter.” In his mind that raised the question: If they don’t matter, why does such a costly tradition continue? What purpose do they really serve?
At one time, of course, conventions decided the nominees. But the primary system changed the way candidates were chosen, and the presence of television cameras meant that parties wanted to project an image of unity. Conventions became stage-managed to the point where they can seem, he said, like “giant pep rallies.”
“I’ve worked very hard to get our convention cut down to two days. You can see how successful I’ve been,” quipped Mike Berman, president of conference cohost the Duberstein Group, who has worked on every Democratic National Convention since 1968. The reason, he thinks, is inertia, since neither party wants to be the first to cut the hours.
“News people used to come to conventions to see conventions. Now conventions seem to be held so they can be seen by media people,” Elving said.
Coverage, though, has changed significantly over the years, with the changes being driven by technology. The role of media throughout much of the twentieth century as objective observers and chroniclers has evolved to an emphasis on performance critique, talking-head analysis, and a return to partisanship by way of the blogosphere.
While hours of network coverage have dropped, the convention does get extensive play on cable and the Web. “I think we need to dial back a bit from some of the hand-wringing over the years at lack of coverage,” said Dotty Lynch, School of Communication executive in residence and former political director of CBS News.
The coverage is available, though cable does involve “more yakking,” she said. Brian Schaffner, School of Public Affairs, noted that cable tends to cover conventions by using them as a backdrop for their regular shows, such as Larry King or Hardball with Chris Matthews.
The internal party struggles that used to inform the convention coverage long ago ceased to be the focus of coverage, which, by 1972, had moved into the “ratifying and advertising phase,” with a “scripted and made-for-TV” approach. Soon, networks were cutting away from the once-important roll call of states and focusing only on major speeches.
This year’s most anticipated moment, Lynch said, may well be the Democratic loser’s speech.
Dotty Lynch, Ron Elving, and Brian Schaffner discuss the role of the media. (Photo by Jeff Watts)
During the third panel of the day, Anthony Corrado, professor of government at Colby College, and Tad Devine, Democratic strategist, explained the often complex convention rules and delegate selection.
Corrado said the Democrats “work under strict proportional regulations—rules that, in some way, represent the will of the people.”
With the race virtually neck and neck, neither Obama nor Clinton is likely to win enough pledge delegates to win the nomination. Thus, the 796 super delegates “are now the endgame in the Democratic nomination process.” Essentially, Corrado said, the super delegates—seasoned politicians who take the voters seriously—“are the biggest primary out there.”
According to Corrado, Clinton has a slight lead among super delegates. “Her two home states [Arkansas and New York] and California give her a slight edge,” he explained.
Devine, founder and partner of Devine Mulvey, a Washington-based strategic communications firm, advised the uncommitted super delegates to “wait, look, and listen—particularly to what voters are saying.”
Still, he said, “judgement should still come well before the Democratic National Convention,” adding that “it would be dangerous to allow this to percolate all the way until Denver.”
But could it? Earlier, the GOP’s Billy Pitts, assistant parliamentarian at four conventions, noted the precedent of the 1952 Republican convention that brought Eisenhower to the fore and said, “I’m raising the specter that potentially, if one of these candidates is behind on the Democratic side going into the convention, they may raise a procedural point, such as the seating of Michigan and Florida delegates, that could turn the tide.”
So this year, there are many scenarios that could make this a dramatic convention.
On the other hand, Elving said, “None of this may happen. We may go back to a script. We may see four days of love, peace, and happiness in Denver. But I’m not betting on it.”
