December 18, 2007
Iowa Caucuses, Who’s Your Candidate?
Just three days into 2008 Iowans will cast the first votes in a presidential primary season that seems as if it’s been ongoing for years.
Everyone wants to know who will win. The answer: who knows?
The Iowa caucuses are notoriously tough to handicap, but some faculty at American University, among the preeminent political experts in the country, took a crack at picking the winners anyway.
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Allan Lichtman has been more than just a fascinated observer of political races; he’s been in the arena. Lichtman, a history professor at AU, ran for the U.S. Senate in Maryland in 2006. Despite that prime experience, Lichtman says of his predictions: “Don’t risk your salary on them. The situation is so fluid, and nobody can predict primaries. It’s all gut.”
Who do you think will win the Democratic contest?
“Hillary Clinton. She has been the sustained front-runner for a very long period of time. I expect a very close contest in Iowa, it could turn on just a few points. I don’t think her competition has come up with enough for the voters to reject the front-runner.”
On the Republican side?
“Mike Huckabee. He has now become the holy grail of the Christian right, the candidate they were searching for. Romney auditioned; Thompson auditioned; and they bombed.”
What do you think are the key issues on each side?
“On the Democratic side, unquestionably, victory. They’re hungry for a win after eight years of George W. Bush. The other thing they’re looking at is experience and preparation. There’s not a whole lot of differences between the candidates on the issues.
“There are big differences on the Republican side, marked by Giuliani, who’s liberal on social issues, and Huckabee, who’s solidly conservative. Those issues are very important to Republicans.”
When it’s all said and done, who do you believe will be the Democratic nominee?
“Hillary Clinton”
For the Republicans?
“None of the above. You’re not going to get a nominee by the convention. I think we’re going to have the first real convention in 50 years.”
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Dotty Lynch knows better than to harbor a guess about primary winners. As a political consultant for CBS News, the School of Communication executive in residence has “seen too many races where we get surprised, and I think this one in particular could be surprising.”
Who do you think will walk away with victories?
“I’m not going to predict a winner. But what we’re seeing now is what I have been predicting all year: the race in the final six weeks would start to scramble. What we’re seeing, especially on the Republican side, is a massive amount of movement and lack of solidity.
What do you think are the major issues that Iowa voters are concerned with?
“We see Iraq and the economy coming to the forefront. On the second level, they’re trying to really assess whether they want experience or whether they want change. Most of them want both. That’s the race we’re seeing.”
Beginning in 1982, Richard Benedetto covered national politics for a then-fledgling newspaper that soon grew into a behemoth. Recently retired after a quarter century at USA Today, Benedetto now spends his days following the races from the sideline while working as an adjunct professor in AU’s School of Communication and School of Public Affairs.
Who do you think will walk away with the victory on the Republican side?
“Iowa is a very unique place. A lot depends on organization, as Pat Robertson showed in 1988. The same thing could happen with Huckabee. There are a lot of Christian conservatives in Iowa, if he can carry them he can win it.”
On the Democratic side?
“Hillary Clinton probably has the best organization, because Clinton has people who are experienced in Iowa. I would say she might have the slight edge over Obama.”
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Leonard Steinhorn, a professor in the School of Communication, has taught at American University since 1995 and is recognized as a leading expert on American politics and culture, which is why he recalled the words of a baseball—and cultural—great when discussing the Iowa caucuses.
“As Yogi Berra said, ‘I never make predictions, especially about the future.’ That said, there are some interesting developments that seem to be shaping this race. For a long time, Senator Clinton and Mayor Giuliani, the presumed frontrunners, paid little attention to Iowa. They figured that as national candidates they would put their emphasis on later and bigger states. But the problem for them is that Iowa is sucking up all the media oxygen, and thus the candidates surging in that state have largely dominated the news these last few weeks. The new storyline is that Clinton and Giuliani are nervous, which is not the image they want to portray. Thus a strategic decision that superficially seemed logical may have a major impact on who becomes our next president.”
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As director of AU’s Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, James Thurber watches political races with an expert’s eye.
Who do you see winning the Democratic contest in Iowa?
“It used to be Hillary’s to lose, but it’s too close to call. She still has the edge, but Obama is looking real good and Edwards is within striking distance. The one problem with Iowa is it’s hard to poll because you don’t know who’s going to turn out, so that means you’ve got to have people who are trained and turn out.”
For the Republicans?
“Huckabee doesn’t have the troops on the ground but he has a lot of momentum and excitement. Sometimes those people don’t turn out, so therefore look to Governor Romney because he’s well organized. Again it’s too close to call, which is wonderful in my opinion. I think it’s great, rather than having Giuliani and Clinton running way ahead.
