NASA consultant looks to moon and Mars

BY MIKE UNGER

When the space shuttle launches in mid to late July—make that if it launches then— Howard McCurdy won’t be in Florida to see it.

The School of Public Affairs professor has witnessed several shuttle launches, but this time he’ll be at his home in Seattle, his thoughts consumed by the distant future of space travel.

McCurdy, who has worked with NASA on a number of projects and has published six books about space, is writing his seventh. A passionate member of the space community, McCurdy undoubtedly will be anxious to see whether Discovery’s launch goes as planned and returns the shuttle program to space for the first time since the Columbia disaster in early 2003. Discovery’s mission has been delayed twice already.

But this year, his book project takes precedence. The volume, which he is cowriting with the Smithsonian’s Roger Launius, focuses on the future roles of men and robots in space travel.

“We did a book about four years ago and projected out 50 years,” McCurdy said. “Not a lot different will happen in the next 50 years. If we wanted to, we could probably get to the moon in 12 years; we probably can’t get to Mars in 50 years. To understand more things about what will happen in the future in space, you must look at a bigger time span. We’re trying to figure out the relative role that humans and robots will play in interstellar flight. Two hundred years from now there’s a very strong chance that things will begin to look different. Humans will become more like robots, and robots will become more like humans. The old visions of space flight really break down past Mars.”

Mars, McCurdy believes, is the space program’s ultimate goal.

“Everything we know about planets is based on a sample of one,” he said. “Wouldn’t you like to double your knowledge by doubling your sample?”

There are two schools of thought when it comes to the space shuttle, McCurdy said.

“Most of the components of the international space station are designed to fit into the bay of the shuttle,” he said. “I also think if NASA gets two successful shuttle missions under its belt, the administrator will approve a Hubble repair mission.”

On the flip side, some people believe the best course of action is to retire the shuttle and use the money to fund a moon mission.

“You go to the moon primarily because you want to go to Mars,” McCurdy said. “Almost like a test run for a Mars mission. If something goes wrong, you’re only three days from home. Ninety percent of the payload for a Mars mission is gas. But it doesn’t take a lot of power to launch from the moon to go to Mars.”

Returning to the moon and setting foot on Mars are two of the major components of President Bush’s space policy. When Bush announced the much ballyhooed agenda during his first term, NASA created 12 committees to study all facets of the plan. McCurdy served on the Robotic and Human Lunar Exploration Strategic Roadmap Committee, which explored whether there would be commercial opportunities on the moon that could help finance the project.

“What would a company pay for the privilege of owning infrastructure on the moon?” he said. “At a minimum, it ought to look something like McMurdo,” referring to the base in Antarctica that the U.S. Navy built but is run by a private company and open to scientists of many nationalities.

“These are the kinds of strategic decisions that are being made now that impact the future,” he said. “If you’re right, you’re a hero, if you’re wrong, you’re a goat.”

The largest impediment to a Mars mission scientifically speaking is finding a way to land a space ship on the surface of the planet, McCurdy said.

“They don’t know how to land anything big enough for humans to live in for a year on Mars,” he said. “That’s the biggest challenge facing us right now. There are no hotels on Mars.”

What’s clear to McCurdy is that the wheels of this project must firmly be in motion by Jan. 20, 2009, the day Bush leaves the White House.

“NASA’s got to get the stakes deep enough in the ground so that Congress can’t pull them out,” he said. “They need to have sufficient momentum. NASA’s biggest problem is always with politics. Their missions invariably last longer than whoever’s in office.”

McCurdy’s passion for space becomes evident by the noticeable gleam that develops in his eye when he discusses the topic, or contemplates the mysteries of the future. He thinks there’s a 50-50 chance that a planet with some signs of life exists within 50 light years of Earth.

“We know there are lots of planets out there, but they’re probably like [the ones in our solar system],” he said. “We’d need a self-repairing [robot] capable of carrying out a two to three year mission with no human intervention.” That would require a much higher level of artificial intelligence than is now found in robots.

“Right now robots are about as smart as 2 year olds,” McCurdy said. “They’re like infants. They don’t know how to walk down stairs. We’d need a robot with the skills of a 32-year-old pilot.

“Our views of humans in space flight suits will be obsolete,” he said. “Our life spans aren’t long enough. It’s exciting, but you’re apprehensive because you fear you won’t live to see it.”